Alternative Futures *

Planning alternative futures is a way of thinking and is a tool for planning. We imagine what might happen (possible future), a preferable future ( the future that we desire), what will happen ( plausible future), and probable future (more likely to happen). There is not just one future but many possible futures for if there were just one future, then, we are determining the future itself.

 Future thinking has always been part of human history and Futures Studies as a discipline uses the tools of science like Mathematics etc as tools in forecasting, for example, population growth and in trying to understand the big problems of the world.

 For our economic recession now, I am sure that we were not lacking in economic forecasts. What were needed, perhaps, were instruments to regulate the market and, more importantly, instruments to regulate “greed. ”

 I remember that in the late eighties, while I was doing development studies in Europe, we asked why the United States, if it was deficit spending already, did not have to undergo structural adjustment as prescribed by world financial institutions for poor countries.

 The answer we had at that time is that the United States has so much productive capacity. Anyway, with the failure of the financial and banking system at this juncture in time, nation states will have to find the fit between state regulation and free market or between protectionism and free trade.

There are many alternative futures for Mindanao. It was inspiring to hear our Mindanao & national leaders on ANC television in February 2009 as they invested themselves in re- imagining Mindanao.

One of the issues that caught my attention was whether economic development can be had in the meantime that peace is not yet at hand. Two decades ago, MINCODE, the coalition of NGO networks had already indicated in a policy paper the political, economic & socio-cultural road map to development in Mindanao. To be sure, all of the proposals will be a hurdle now amidst the economic recession now resonating deeply – in many ways- with nation states as well as with ordinary citizens. One of the constant themes in that MINCODE paper is that Mindanao is tri-people and multi-cultural.

Which is why, one of the panelists in that recent ANC TV special sponsored by the Asia Foundation and the embassy of Canada, remarked that these kind of conversations must also reflect the voice of the indigenous peoples in Mindanao. It was also noted that small or big victories in programs and projects of NGOs are not enough if these did not evolve into policies or in the case of the MOA-AD, if they do not fulfill the legal & constitutional requirements

The fate of the MOA-AD was a major piece in that ANC TV special coverage on Mindanao. Some of the lessons of that entire process leading to the non signing of the MOA-AD as described by Ms Irene Santiago, chair of the Mindanao Commission on Women, were a deficiency in tactical planning and this current administration’s lack of political capital and leadership to pave the way towards signing; the MOA-AD as a peace agreement should have been forged as an iconic event and putting as conditions the eventual passage of the legal and constitutional requirements, at some point.

 Looking back, yes, this is how the Tripoli agreement happened in 1976. Then in 1977, a Code of Muslim Personal Laws was passed which made possible the creation of Shari’a Courts in 1985. Much later, the 1996 peace agreement between the Philippines and the Moro National Liberation Front was also signed. All these instruments in 1977, 1985 and 1996 were based on the Tripoli agreement.

With the coming elections next year, now is a great time to draft those policy & legislative agendas needed for the proposed institutional arrangements for Mindanao.

* based on my column on the opinion page of the Mindanao Times on Feb 11, 2009 entitled Continuing Conversations on Mindanao